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2 Reasons to Like PANW and 1 to Stay Skeptical

PANW Cover Image

Over the past six months, Palo Alto Networks’s shares (currently trading at $163.76) have posted a disappointing 17% loss, well below the S&P 500’s 5.6% gain. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Following the pullback, is this a buying opportunity for PANW? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.

Why Does PANW Stock Spark Debate?

Founded in 2005 by security visionary Nir Zuk who sought to reimagine firewall technology, Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) provides AI-powered cybersecurity platforms that protect organizations' networks, clouds, and endpoints from sophisticated threats.

Two Things to Like:

1. Projected Revenue Growth Is Remarkable

Forecasted revenues by Wall Street analysts signal a company’s potential. Predictions may not always be accurate, but accelerating growth typically boosts valuation multiples and stock prices while slowing growth does the opposite, though some deceleration is natural as businesses become larger.

Over the next 12 months, sell-side analysts expect Palo Alto Networks’s revenue to rise by 28.1%, an improvement versus its 21.2% annualized growth for the past five years. This projection is eye-popping and suggests its newer products and services will spur better top-line performance.

2. Excellent Free Cash Flow Margin Boosts Reinvestment Potential

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

Palo Alto Networks has shown terrific cash profitability, driven by its cost-effective customer acquisition strategy that enables it to stay ahead of the competition through investments in new products rather than sales and marketing. The company’s free cash flow margin was among the best in the software sector, averaging an eye-popping 36% over the last year. Palo Alto Networks has shown terrific cash profitability relative to peers over the last year, giving the company fewer opportunities to return capital to shareholders.

Palo Alto Networks Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

One Reason to be Careful:

Weak Billings Point to Soft Demand

Billings is a non-GAAP metric that is often called “cash revenue” because it shows how much money the company has collected from customers in a certain period. This is different from revenue, which must be recognized in pieces over the length of a contract.

Palo Alto Networks’s billings came in at $2.79 billion in Q4, and over the last four quarters, its year-on-year growth averaged 11%. This performance was underwhelming and suggests that increasing competition is causing challenges in acquiring/retaining customers. Palo Alto Networks Billings

Final Judgment

Palo Alto Networks’s positive characteristics outweigh the negatives. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 8.9× forward price-to-sales (or $163.76 per share). Is now a good time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our full research report, it’s free.

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