What Happened?

Shares of school bus company Blue Bird (NASDAQ: BLBD) jumped 14.5% in the afternoon session after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed analyst expectations on profit and provided an upbeat full-year profit forecast. 

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.00, comfortably beating the anticipated $0.80. Revenue for the quarter also slightly exceeded forecasts at $333.1 million, a 6.1% increase year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million also significantly surpassed estimates. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted that order intake climbed 45% compared to last year, pushing the company's backlog to a seasonally strong level. He also emphasized the company's ability to pass through tariffs and maintain profitability. "Our Q1 order intake was up 45% from 2025, which pushed our backlog to a seasonally strong 3,400 units," Wyskiel stated, reflecting confidence in Blue Bird's positioning despite external pressures. 

Looking ahead, Blue Bird offered a mixed full-year outlook. While its revenue guidance of $1.5 billion at the midpoint came in slightly below consensus, its adjusted EBITDA forecast of $225 million was ahead of Wall Street's expectations, signaling confidence in its future profitability. Overall, we think this was a decent quarter with some key metrics above expectations.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Blue Bird’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Blue Bird and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock gained 5.6% on the news that investors reacted to positive analyst commentary ahead of the company's scheduled earnings report. 

The positive sentiment was supported by DA Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky, who confirmed a "Buy" rating for Blue Bird and maintained a $70 price target, signaling continued confidence in the company's prospects. Excitement also built around the company's upcoming quarterly earnings announcement, scheduled for November 24, 2025. Investors recalled that in the previous quarter, Blue Bird surpassed earnings per share (EPS) estimates by $0.26.

Blue Bird is up 20.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $56.40 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $60.86 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Blue Bird’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,568.

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