What Happened?
Shares of freight Delivery Company ArcBest (NASDAQ: ARCB) jumped 4% in the morning session after the company reported a 1% year-over-year increase in revenue per day for November, stemming previous declines.
The positive revenue result was driven by a 3% increase in tonnage, which offset a 2% decline in revenue per hundredweight, a measure of pricing. While the results were mixed, investors appeared to focus on the better-than-expected tonnage growth. ArcBest, however, reiterated its expectation for margin deterioration in its asset-based segment during the fourth quarter, citing continued softness in the broader freight market. Following the update, analysts at BofA Securities and Citigroup lowered their price targets on the stock, though Citigroup maintained its 'Buy' rating while Bank of America held its 'Neutral' rating.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $67.57, up 4.3% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
ArcBest’s shares are very volatile and have had 20 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 8 months ago when the stock dropped 13% on the news that stocks gave back some of the gains from the previous day as the White House clarified the tariffs on imports from China would add up to 145%, while the baseline 10% tariffs remained in place for all countries. This reminded markets that the global trade environment remained volatile, limiting the potential for sustained gains. Also, President Trump said he was willing to accept pain in the short term, and was aware his policies could cause a recession, but he remained more mindful of a more severe case of economic depression (higher unemployment and prolonged downturn). For investors, this suggested that the administration could prioritize long-term structural shifts over near-term economic stability, further increasing policy-driven risk in the markets.
ArcBest is down 26.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $67.57 per share, it is trading 39.7% below its 52-week high of $112.09 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of ArcBest’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,550.
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