Milliman analysis: Q4 2024 mortgage default risk decreases to 2.12%

Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today announced the fourth quarter (Q4) 2024 results of the Milliman Mortgage Default Index (MMDI), which shows a slight decrease in the lifetime serious delinquency rate (for homes 180 days or more delinquent) for U.S.-backed mortgages. The Q4 2024 MMDI dipped to 2.12%, compared to a restated 2.18% in Q3.

In Q4 2024, the decrease in default risk reflects a continued strength in borrower profiles, which include slightly higher average FICO scores and lower average loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for the quarter. Borrower risk decreased from 1.46% in Q3 2024 to 1.39% in Q4, a shift buoyed by a lower volume of cash-out refinance loans and strong credit characteristics among purchase loans.

“Even with the slight decline in default risk this quarter, it’s important to consider how evolving economic uncertainty can impact mortgage performance,” said Jonathan Glowacki, a principal at Milliman and co-author of the MMDI. “Mortgages are long-duration contracts, and economic events can impact both new mortgages and seasoned mortgages. We will continue to monitor loan performance to evaluate how policy decisions and regulatory changes are impacting the mortgage market.”

In reviewing Q3 to Q4 changes, note that the Q3 2024 MMDI values have been restated from 2.12% to 2.18% to account for lower-than-forecasted home price appreciation. The MMDI relies on a baseline forecast of future home prices, and as projections and real-world conditions change, the values in subsequent publications adjust accordingly.

Read the full Q4 2024 MMDI report. For organizations interested in accessing additional mortgage market thought leadership, analytics, and technology, learn about Milliman M-PIRe Valuation & Securitization Software.

About Milliman

Milliman leverages deep expertise, actuarial rigor, and advanced technology to develop solutions for a world at risk. We help clients in the public and private sectors navigate urgent, complex challenges—from extreme weather and market volatility to financial insecurity and rising health costs—so they can meet their business, financial, and social objectives. Our solutions encompass insurance, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and employee benefits. Founded in 1947, Milliman is an independent firm with offices in major cities around the globe. Visit us at milliman.com.

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