Recent Mortgage Rate Decreases Welcomed by Housing Market, But Activity Remains Low
Net New Listing and Contract Value are Trending at Multi-Year Seasonal Lows
Inventory Levels Higher Than Same Period in Previous Years, But Remain Historically Low
HouseCanary, Inc. (“HouseCanary”), a national brokerage known for its real estate valuation accuracy, today released its November Market Pulse Report, showing market activity in terms of net new listing volume remains down year-over-year, with net new listings placed on the market 10.9% lower than November 2022.
After months of consistent increases from the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates have finally started to decrease. Following data showing that inflation might be cooling, rates recently hit their lowest levels in more than two months, reversing the previous trend of consistent increases. In order to see the impact of lower rates on home prices, however, potential buyers and sellers will need time to adjust. That being said, the housing market remains far off pre-pandemic inventory levels, and there is potential for recent rate decreases to couple with depressed inventory and increase demand, keeping prices elevated well into 2024. The ‘sticker shock’ of high mortgage rates will continue to keep many potential buyers on the sidelines pending even further rate decreases.
Jeremy Sicklick, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of HouseCanary, commented:
“While recent rate decreases have brought hopes of relief, the housing market continued to face low activity in November. Despite inventory being up 1.7% from the same period last year and up 5.8% from the year prior, inventory levels remain low from a historical perspective. Positive inflation data is having a beneficial impact on mortgage rates, but the market as a whole will continue to be constrained by inventory levels. While rates are seeing slight decreases, it is unlikely that they will fall to pre-pandemic levels in the near future. Buyers will have to come to terms with a new normal of higher-than-average mortgage rates, and 2024 purchase activity will likely remain at below average levels compared to previous years.”
Key Takeaways:
- Over the last 52 weeks, 2,460,745 net new listings were placed on the market, and 2,584,363 properties went under contract. This represents a decrease of 21.1% and 15.5%, respectively.
- For the month of November 2023, 157,658 net new listings were placed on the market, and 212,430 properties went under contract. This represents a decrease of 10.9% and 1.2%, respectively, versus November 2022.
- The decrease in net new listings was driven by a 12.3% decrease in new listing volume as well as a 15.4% decrease in removals compared to November 2022.
- Total inventory is up 1.7% from the same period in 2022, and up 5.8% from 2021. Inventory remains very low from a historical perspective.
- Median days on market stands at 43. This is down 4.4% from where it was one year prior at 45 days on market.
- The median price of all single-family listings in the US was $429,633 and the median closed price was $402,891. On a year-over-year basis, the median price of all single-family listings is up 3.1% and the median price of closed listings is up 6.1%. Month-over-month, the median price of single-family listings is down 1.2% and the median price of closed listings is up 0.1%.
Methodology
The Market Pulse Report is an ongoing review of proprietary data and insights from HouseCanary’s nationwide platform, covering 22 listing-derived metrics and comparing data between November 2022 and November 2023.
About HouseCanary
Founded in 2013, national real estate brokerage HouseCanary empowers consumers, financial institutions, investors, and mortgage lenders, with industry-leading services including valuations, forecasts, and transactions. These clients trust HouseCanary to fuel acquisition, underwriting, portfolio management, and more. Learn more at www.housecanary.com.
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