Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH), based in California, is a major U.S. managed care company that focuses on providing health insurance to individuals and families who receive care through government-sponsored programs. The company has a market cap of $7.7 billion and operates primarily in Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces, serving millions of members across multiple states.
Molina Healthcare has been on a brutal slide, dramatically falling out of step with the market. Over the past year, Molina shares have declined 52.2%, whereas the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 11%. The past six months have been even harsher as MOH tumbled 55.7% while the benchmark index climbed another 13%.
Even within its own corner of the healthcare world, the stock has been left behind. The SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS) rose 12.5% over the past year and 8.6% over the past six months.
On Oct. 22, Molina Healthcare released its third-quarter 2025 results, and the market reacted sharply, with the stock plunging 17.5% in the very next trading session. While revenue grew a solid 11% year over year to $11.5 billion, adjusted EPS crashed 69.4% to $1.84. The company’s consolidated medical care ratio spiked to 92.6%, primarily driven by higher-than-expected costs in its Marketplace (ACA) segment. Membership increased to 5.6 million, but that wasn’t enough to offset profit concerns. Molina also cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to around $14, down sharply from prior expectations near $19, which is its third guidance reduction of the year.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect Molina’s EPS to decline 38.4% year over year to $13.95, on a diluted basis. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history overall. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line projections in one of the trailing four quarters, it missed the EPS estimates in the other three.
Overall, Wall Street appears cautious about MOH stock, with a consensus “Hold” rating. Of the 18 analysts currently offering recommendations, three advise a “Strong Buy,” 12 give a “Hold,” one has a “Moderate Sell” rating, and the remaining two have a “Strong Sell” rating.
The current configuration is bearish than two months ago when the stock had four “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On Oct. 17, Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes reiterated his “Buy” rating on Molina Healthcare and set a $220 price target, which is also the Street-high price target.
The mean price target of $172.53 represents a premium of 21.9% to MOH’s current price.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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