425
Filed by NRG Energy, Inc. pursuant to
Rule 425 of the Securities Act of 1933 and
deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-12 of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Company: NRG Energy, Inc.
Commission File No.: 001-15891
On November 10, 2008, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) hosted a conference call regarding the NRG Board of
Directors rejection of Exelon Corporations unsolicited proposal. The slides that were presented
and a transcript of the presentation are included below.
Charting Our Course
Phoenix, Arizona
November 10, 2008
NRG: Focus on Value
David Crane
Chief Executive Officer
|
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation
of any vote or approval.
This Investor Presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act
of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain
risks, uncertainties and assumptions and typically can be identified by the use of words such as "expect," "estimate,"
"should," "anticipate," "forecast," "plan," "guidance," "believe" and similar terms. Such forward-looking statements
include Exelon's unsolicited offer, our adjusted EBITDA, cash flow from operations, future growth and financial
performance, and carbon strategy. Although NRG believes that its expectations are reasonable, it can give no
assurance that these expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual results may vary materially. Factors that
could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated above include, among others, general economic
conditions, hazards customary in the power industry, weather conditions, competition in wholesale power markets, the
volatility of energy and fuel prices, failure of customers to perform under contracts, changes in the wholesale power
markets, changes in government regulation of markets and of environmental emissions, the condition of capital
markets generally, our ability to access capital markets, unanticipated outages at our generation facilities, adverse
results in current and future litigation, failure to identify or successfully implement acquisitions and repowerings, the
inability to implement value enhancing improvements to plant operations and companywide processes, our ability to
realize value through our commercial operations strategy, and our ability to achieve the expected benefits of our 2008
and 2009 Capital Allocation Plans and RepoweringNRG projects.
NRG undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise. The foregoing review of factors that could cause NRG's actual results to differ
materially from those contemplated in the forward-looking statements included in this Investor Presentation should be
considered in connection with information regarding risks and uncertainties that may affect NRG's future results
included in NRG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov.
|
Agenda
The Exelon Offer
Undervaluation
Unattractive net synergies
Unanswered questions
Uncertain transactability
NRG - The Path to Real Value
NRG - Always Looking to Create Value,
Not Empires
Conclusion
|
Exelon Offer at Market
Exelon's opportunistically timed approach seeks to exploit value aberration arising
out of the current financial crisis which has nothing to do with the two companies'
relative performance or prospects.
Average = 0.501x
High = 0.614x
Low = 0.320x
At-Market
on 10/17(1) = 0.355x
EXC
Proposal = 0.485x
Source: FactSet.
2-Year NRG / EXC Trading Ratio (Daily)
NRG
Exceeds consensus
expectations
Reports best quarterly
results in history
Announces 2009 share
buyback program
Exelon
Reports lower year-
over-year results
Guides to lower end of
range for 2008
Suspends share
buyback program
Exelon's approach to NRG at close to a 2 year low
Proposed exchange ratio is at a discount to the average historical trading ratio
|
NRG Always Has Been Managed for Cash
Implied Ownership at Exelon Proposal: 17%
Source: Estimates reflect Wall Street estimates for Exelon and NRG management guidance for NRG.
Where is the payoff?
30%
70%
26%
74%
0.833x
0.670x
Implied
Exchange
Ratio
Percent Recurring FCF Contribution
Year
2008E
2009E
|
Reports its best performance ever
in 3rd quarter
Raises 2008 guidance
Launches 2009 share buyback program
Amasses record cash on hand and
record liquidity
Exelon Offer Based on Fundamentals
Source: FactSet. Reflects consensus 1-year forward total free cash flow yields.
Reports lower year-on-year 3rd quarter
results
Guides 2008 to lower end of range
Suspends share buyback program indefinitely
Discloses multi-billion dollar unfunded
pension liability
Given the recent relative decline in NRG's share price, NRG is
significantly undervalued on a free cash flow basis compared to Exelon
NRG
Exelon
In the current environment, more than ever, cash is king
7.4%
3.8%
7.7%
3.3%
14.4%
4.8%
1 Year Ago
6 Months Ago
Current
|
Cash Accretion for Exelon = Cash Dilution for NRG
At the proposed exchange ratio, the transaction subjects NRG
shareholders to significant dilution
Dilution to NRG
Source: Exelon investor presentation filed on 10/29/08, slide 5. Free cash flow per share dilution to NRG reflects Exelon's pro forma estimate for 2010
multiplied by Exelon's proposed exchange ratio.
42.4%
Transfer of Value
Accretion to Exelon
While Exelon touted the accretion resulting
from the transaction, Exelon failed to highlight
that the "accretion" accrues only to Exelon
shareholders
(55.8%)
|
Synergy Problem
Limited positive
synergies
Minus
Uncommonly large
negative synergies
Equals
EQUITY VALUE
DESTRUCTION
"Synergy Problem"
In this environment, the negative financing
synergies will lead to value destruction
Whole (Exelon PF) > Exelon + NRG
Positive Synergies > Negative synergies
$180mm - $300mm/year
duplicative costs
=
NRG Corporate G&A +
Other duplicative costs
But, also according to Exelon, there are
negative synergies as well...
$500mm transaction costs
$100mm "Costs to Achieve"
$300mm - $500mm per year of incremental interest costs(1)
+
+
Fixed Exchange Ratio Deals...
Which means...
Where, according to Exelon, the positive
synergies are ...
Must be
Must be
(1) NRG estimate of total costs of refinancing
|
Exelon's Offer Leaves Several Critical
Questions Unanswered Regarding the
Combined Company's Prospects
|
Question 1: Is it a Viable Offer?
All figures indicated are on a pre-tax basis. Excludes potential asset sales/cash that could reduce debt. 100bps change in
underwriting or consent fees would increase costs by $73MM
Not the best time to approach the debt markets
Financing Method Potential Cost Other Factors
New financing to refinance NRG's existing bond and bank debt
(Total approx. $7.3bn) Every 100bps increase in interest rates adds $73MM to interest burden
Underwriting fees will add to cost at 2%, represents an additional $146MM of cost Exelon has provided indication that interest rates would be in "double digits"
Consent from NRG bondholders, existing NRG first lien lenders agree to refinance NRG's debt currently trades in the high 80s; if debt holders demand par to forego change of control, implies $800MM-$950MM of costs Outside of Exelon's control, dependent on view of market for appropriate compensation
Is it possible? At what price?
To date Exelon has been unable to demonstrate committed financing sources for the
transaction
Public statements by Exelon to date have hinted at a potential consent solution in the
event that NRG was to agree to a transaction
The Debt Refinancing Issues
|
Question 1: Is it a Viable Offer?
Exelon's quest for credit rating upgrades will come at a significant
cost for shareholders and will go unrewarded by rating agencies
Exelon's commercial operations,
finance, and risk functions may not
be prepared to trade 48,000 MW off
of a weak investment grade or sub-
investment grade entity
Managing business at BBB- means
that Exelon will be working for the
rating agencies and not the
shareholders
Higher system-wide cost of capital
post-transaction due to weaker
credit metrics and higher costs of
NRG refinancing
Posting requirements at sub-
investment grade, in a high price
environment, likely to be measured
in the billions
Risks to Managing Commodity
Pressures Off Rating Criteria
Credit Implications for Exelon
The Credit Rating Issue
|
Equity
Debt
CREDIT/STATS
EBITDA/Interest
FFO/Total Debt
Total Debt/EV
FINANCIAL PROFILE
EBITDA Guidance
Liquidity
Enterprise Value
BUSINESS PROFILE
Geographical Diversity
Total MW
5 Year Average %
Baseload
Hedged
Strategic Hedging Collateral Position
Cumulative Corporate Debt Reduction
Q4 2003
1.59
68.9%
$554
$173
$7,042
3 Regions
18,200MW
~35%
Cash
nm
$0
Q3 2008
Improvements
-
140%
e
e
-
22%
e
3.81
22.3%
59.7%
$2,400
$3,049
$13,711
4 Regions
24,020MW
63%
1
st
Lien
333%
e
e
1,662%
e
116%
e
33%
e
32%
e
79%
e
e
nm
e
$1,778
nm
nm
B+
CORPORATE CREDIT RATINGS
S&P
B+
In the competitive power generation sector, it is not wise to predicate
a business strategy on credit rating upgrades
($ in millions)
NRG Credit Rating Upgrade -
Four Year Track Record
|
Rating Downgrade Triggered Equity
Value Destruction at Constellation
CEG emergency
BOD meeting
CEG w/ S&P
(new conditions
imposed to
avoid downgrade)
S&P places CEG on
CreditWatch
CEG w/ Moody's
(no further
action likely)
CEG w/ Moody's
(Moody's
threatening two
notch downgrade)
CEG w/ Moody's
(no comment as to
whether EDF deal
would keep ratings)
CEG decides EDF
deal can't work
MEHC w/ agencies
about CEG deal
Moody's
downgrades CEG
CEG receives
alternate EDF /
KKR / TPG offer
CEG w/ Moody's
(need MEHC $1bn
or further
downgrade)
CEG signs definitive
MEHC deal
Exelon's preoccupation with credit ratings is a
"franchise risk" to NRG shareholders
Source: Constellation Energy Group Inc. Form PRER 14A; filed 10/20/08
|
Liquidity
Total Non-Lien Liquidity Available $3,049
Liquidity @ 9/30/2008
(1) For GAAP purposes, NRG carries cash collateral outstanding as Current Assets
in millions
NRG
Unrestricted Cash $1,483(1)
Restricted Cash 32
Cash Available $1,515
Synthetic LC's
Capacity $1,300
Current use (766)
Availability $534
Revolver LC's
Capacity $1,000
Current use (0)
Availability $1,000
Liquidity @ 9/30/2008
in millions
Exelon Corporation and Generation
Unrestricted Cash $83
Restricted Cash 73
Cash Available $156
Revolving Credit Facilities
Capacity $5,791
Letters of Credit (181)
Availability $5,610
Total Non-Lien Liquidity Available $5,766
Liquidity per TWh Generated 41x
Liquidity per TWh Generated 38x
With record liquidity, NRG does not need Exelon or its credit
rating to ensure access to capital
|
Question 2: Under Exelon's Offer,
Where Would All of the Cash Go?
In the early years, funds available for share repurchases
and growth CAPEX may be limited or nonexistent...
Exelon
Cash Flow
NRG
Cash Flow
To maintain Exelon dividend (83% of
which would go to Exelon shareholders)
To pay down the expensive debt raised
by Exelon and fund transaction costs
To fund Exelon's $2.5bn unfunded pension
shortfall
To provide cash collateral for hedges
To amass cash on balance sheet in an
attempt to impress the rating agencies
Potential Synergies?
|
No Near-Term Incremental Free Cash Flow
Generated from the Combination
.. . . resulting in negative incremental free cash flow
2009PF
2010E
Cumulative 2-
Year Impact
Per Exelon's own estimates, no near-term
incremental free cash flow once the costs are
taken into account (1)
(1) 2009PF reflects Exelon's estimate of transaction costs ($500mm), net of taxes. 2010E reflects Exelon's pro forma free cash flow estimate less
the standalone free cash flow estimates for Exelon and NRG, all per slide 5 of Exelon's investor presentation filed on 10/29/08 less Exelon's $100
million estimate for implementation costs of synergies, net of taxes.
Lower cash returned to NRG
shareholders under the Exelon proposal
NRG's Announced 2009
Share Buyback Program
Exelon's Dividend
In $ millions
In $ millions
|
Million tons
CO2/year
Exelon +
NRG 2008
Exelon 2008
?
Question 3: What About "Exelon 2020"?
NRG sees benefit in decarbonizing fleet, but it is of no value to
talk about it if you can't show how you will achieve it
2008
2020
The Carbon Gap
How Does NRG Fit?
Assist customers,
reduce GHG
3.5mm metric tons
Includes implementing
energy efficiency
programs at utilities and
smartmeters
Greening operations
~ 5mm metric tons
Includes reducing energy
consumption in its
building and build of
green supply chain
More Low-carbon
electricity
12mm metric tons
Includes
development of
CCGT, renewables,
and expanding
nuclear gen
|
Exelon's and NRG's Growth Prospects
are Very Different
.... and We are Far More
Bullish on Ours
|
NRG Growth Drivers / Exelon Growth Drivers
Extracting Maximum Value
from Existing Business
Leverage off Inherent Advantages
of Existing Assets
New High Growth
Revenue Opportunities
PECO roll off in 2011
NRG growth drivers are
intrinsically driven
NRG
Exelon
ComEd roll off in 2013
Enactment and implementation
of federal carbon legislation
Exelon growth is regulatory-
driven and politician-dependent
|
What is Exelon's Growth Strategy?
Difficult tough economic conditions usually do not result in a
benign regulatory environment for utilities
(1) I/B/E/S estimates per Exelon presentation of October 29, 2008.
(2) Illustrative rate increase based on PPL auction per Exelon presentation of March 6, 2008.
Operating Earnings / share (1)
PECO contract expires end of 2010
Higher customer bills drive Exelon's
earnings
ExGen offered to supply 35% ComEd
load in 2006 auction
2007 Settlement resulted in the
Exelon contribution of ~ $800 million
to rate relief programs over four
years
Future ComEd procurement outcomes
uncertain, along with ExGen ability to
achieve revenue targets
Of Exelon's 19 nuclear units 11 are
located in Illinois and the other 8
in Pennsylvania and New Jersey
Pennsylvania Transition to Market
Nuclear Carbon Value Capture
Illinois Power
Procurement Auctions
To what degree will Pennsylvania allow
ExGen and PECO to profit in present
environment?
Given the existing economic pressures
on consumers, will Exelon be allowed
to walk away with a multi-billion dollar
financial "uplift" from carbon
legislation?
|
NRG view on claw back: Not if, but how much?
At first glance, Exelon carbon upside looks
attractive to shareholders ...
17,000 MW of merchant nuclear generation could
yield ~$8bn value to Exelon shareholders1
($12/share)
Upside widely touted and advertised
by Exelon itself
.... but can it be realized?
Carbon increases regulator concern over high
Exelon earnings "on the back" of consumers
already paying higher prices
PECO and ComEd retail load would incur an
additional ~$5bn1 in power costs (NPV) due to
carbon uplift passed through from wholesale
market
What could regulators do?
Impose additional discount requirements on
ComEd and PECO default retail service rates
Deny ComEd or PECO rate increases to cover
their distribution costs
Propose a windfall profits tax or other
mechanism to "claw back" carbon and PJM
energy/capacity market uplift
Exelon defensive? Lobby NARUC and Congress to
give all power sector allowances to LDCs like PECO
and ComEd for free
LDCs have no compliance obligations, so they
would sell the allowances to companies that do
The allowance revenues would be used as a direct
reduction to cost based distribution service rates
NRG view:
We question whether Congress will give a large
number of allowances to low carbon LDCs
Nuclear carbon upside will be harder to keep
during period of economic and consumer pain
(1) Assuming modest Dingalll-Boucher prices for 2015 - 2030
Carbon: An Environmental Benefit at Risk
|
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2008 0 17 50 100 125 150
Exelon Regulatory Driven Growth: Bad Timing
Prolonged economic
recession
Democratic
majority looks to
use tax rebate to
protect consumers
from carbon costs
during election
cycle
Hard-hit Illinois &
Pennsylvania have
another crack at Exelon
Exelon nuclear
emerges as single
largest
(unintended)
beneficiary of
Federal carbon
legislation
Exelon's growth at risk
|
Question 4: Can Exelon Realize NRG's Growth
Potential (Just Because They are Big?)
Exelon ownership likely to inhibit NRG growth
Culture
Exelon has a traditional utility structure, which means, multi-tiered
bureaucracy, committee-driven, engineer-dominated
Track Record
Exelon has no track record of successful power plant development
Exelon has no renewables business
Experience
Exelon management has no IPP experience
Exelon management has no discernible entrepreneurial experience
Cash
Exelon cash will be used (or not used) to placate the rating agencies
|
Nuclear development is a high reward initiative but it also comes with an unacceptably
high risk if you don't seek to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s-80s, including:
Taking unnecessary first-of-a-kind technology risk
Taking unmitigated EPC risk and escalation potential
Ignoring manufacturing pipeline strength
Wearing merchant power price risk
Expecting subsidies and/or regulatory paradigm to counteract poor planning
NRG and NINA believe that the fundamentals of project development are required
regardless of whether the company is building a combined cycle or a nuclear plant
Limit first-of-a-kind and pipeline risk by building what has been built before
Create maximum licensing certainty
Negotiate a strong EPC contract
Get long-term off-take / PPA cover
Bring in partners that strengthen developer team and project
Utilize subsidies available, but don't rely on them for long-term success
NRG's first priority is to protect our equity and debt investors
NRG Leading Nuclear Development Program:
One Case in Point
|
STP (NRG) & Victoria (Exelon) Comparison
Risk STP 3&4 Victoria Comments
EPC Contract u u STP has negotiated and signed a fixed price EPC contract that is substantially similar or better than traditional high quality fossil EPC contracts
Previous Construction History u u ABWR has been built four times on time and on budget in Japan
Toshiba, STP 3&4's EPC contractor, has been involved in the majority of the ABWR construction in Japan
Quantities are known and modularization techniques have been employed effectively
Previous Operating History u u ABWR has 12 years of operating history in Japan
The ABWR has an exceptional track record with high capacity factors when adjusted for U.S. regulatory standards
High Quality Offtake u u NINA has signed MOUs with multiple counterparties for PPAs for a large portion of STP 3&4 offtake
Multiple Funding Sources u u NINA's partnering strategy creates the potential for loans from Japan
Victoria would not have access to these funds with Exelon as the sole owner
Certified Design u u ABWR previously certified in 1997
Existing Supply Chain u u Toshiba has existing ABWR capacity
In addition, with four operating ABWRs in Japan there is an existing component and spare parts supply chain that has developed to service these plants
STP 3&4 will have the benefit of this supply chain
Aligned Vendors/Providers u u Toshiba is the prime EPC contractor and part owner of NINA, which ensures that Toshiba is highly motivated to see the project be successful
|
STP & Victoria Development Comparison (cont'd)
Risk STP 3&4 Victoria Comments
Existing Transportation & Construction Infrastructure u u STP 3&4 site was designed for four operating units with plenty of laydown space
There is an existing barge slip that makes transportation of ultra-large modules and RPV units possible with very little upgrading
In addition to a barge slip, there is an existing heavy haul road and rail spur
Highly Quality Nuclear Operator u u STPNOC is a highly rated and respected operator in the nuclear industry
STPNOC is the only operator in history to have 2 breaker to breaker runs in a row for both operating units
Adequate Water Supply u u The STP site has existing water permits with the Lower Colorado River Authority that will be sufficient to operate 4 units at the STP site
Existing Cooling Facilities u u The STP site has a 7,000 acre, above ground cooling reservoir that was designed to accommodate 4 operating units
Victoria would be required to construct a similar cooling reservoir or erect cooling towers, which would add additional costs
Community Support u u Matagorda County is highly supportive of the STP expansion plans
NINA has received letters of support from every level of the Texas government from Governor to Senators to Representatives to County Judges
Victoria has faced numerous attacks from community activists speaking out against the proposed greenfield project
Existing Transmission u u In Texas, power generators are not responsible for the construction of transmission lines to the power plant; however, STP is already an operating plant with transmission lines connected
Victoria is a greenfield site where transmission lines must be sited and constructed
|
NRG
The Path to Real Value
|
2008 on target for record operating and financial performance
Operational and Commercial Summary
Safety results approaching top decile
performance
3rd quarter 2008 OSHA Recordable Rate
improved 46% versus 3rd quarter 2007
YTD OSHA Recordable Rate of 0.86 versus 1.63
in 2007
Coal plant operations approaching top decile
performance
3rd quarter 2008 equivalent availability factor
(EAF) improves to 95.4% from 93.6% in 3rd
quarter 2007
YTD 2008 EAF improves to 91.1% versus 88.7%
YTD 2007
STP 3rd quarter EAF at 100%
Commercial Operations adds long-term
strategic hedges
18.4 TWhrs of power hedges added during 3rd
quarter 2008
53.7 TWhrs of power hedges added YTD 2008
FORNRG 1.0 surpasses $250 million goal
$250 million goal achieved ahead of schedule
FORNRG 2.0 launched
Operational Highlights
Financial Highlights
3rd Quarter 2008 Results
Record quarterly adjusted EBITDA - up 7% to
$758 million from the previous record last year
of $710 million
Cash from operations, excluding cash collateral,
up 15% from $521 million to $597 million
YTD 2008 Results
Adjusted EBITDA up 13% from $1.73 billion to
$1.97 billion
Cash from operations, excluding cash collateral,
up 26% from $1,083 million to $1,361 million
Liquidity up $432 million, or 17%, during 3rd
quarter to record $3.0 billion
2008 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised $100
million to $2.4 billion from $2.3 billion
Initiating 2009 adjusted EBITDA guidance of
$2.2 billion and 2009 Capital Allocation Plan
|
Managing Commodity Price Risk
Baseload Hedge Position1
Open Energy
YTD New Hedges
2007 Hedged Energy
Hedged Fuel
26%
44%
68%
78%
95%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
21%
9%
Hedging program utilizes commodity price
volatility to lock in gross margin while lien program provides efficient
collateral vehicle
22%
75%
62%
23%
57%
12%
104%
25%
1 Includes Northeast, South Central and Texas as of 10/16/2008.
2 Available baseload under the Lien Program represents 80% of total
baseload capacity for first rolling 60 months and 60% for the next 12
months
Total 116 TWhs of hedging capacity
available 2009-2013 under the
Lien Program
MW's
5,083
4,625
3,806
2,220
873
6,469
6,751
6,772
6,965
6,836
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Available Baseload
Hedged under Lien Program
33%
14%
56%
68%
73%
As of 10/23/08
Lien Program2
|
Heat Rates: Texas Always Recovers First
Recession impact on demand muted given elasticity
of residential/commercial load
Limited access to capital will delay/cancel new build
pipeline. (27 GW of proposed capacity at-risk)
Reserve margins tightens as recession ends and the
supply of new capacity is less
Credit lockdown, financial crisis causes next reserve
margin trough and accelerates heat rate expansion
Source: NRG estimates, Ventyx E-Velocity
Supply and Reserve Margin (ERCOT)
Demand (ERCOT)
Texas has historically exceeded the national average on
GDP, employment and load growth statistics
2006-2007 8% rate of GDP growth per year (5.5%
nationally)
2005-2007 employment growth 3.1% per year (1.5%
nationally)
Forecasted peak demand growth in Texas expected
between 1.5%-2%
On a weather normalized basis, Ercot is expected to grow
2% in 2008
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. (Nominal Units)
Historical GDP
NRG has greatest exposure in region best equipped to weather
recession and take advantage of next economic cycle
|
Oct 30, 2008
Potential reduction
of 4 Bcf/d
12-M forward strip
at $7.68/MMBtu as
of Nov 3, 2008
Significant decrease in natural gas prices
(~40%) signals production cuts.
Reduction in rig count could mean up to 4
Bcf/d of supply reduction.
Access to capital has been severely
constrained.
Several E&P companies have announced
20%-30% reduction in 2009 Capex
Source: Bloomberg. Data from 1994-2008
cagr = 3%
Sustained global demand growth for natural gas
from electric generation.
Future environmental regulations favors use of
natural gas as the clean resource.
Continued widening price gap between
international LNG and U.S. market leads to
inability to attract LNG to U.S. domestic market.
Decoupling from crude oil prices make natural
gas attractive for alternative use (i.e. CNG,
home heating).
Supply
Demand
We remain Bullish in our Natural gas outlook
Natural Gas Fundamentals - Seeds are Sown
for a Recovery
Source: Bloomberg, NRG estimate, BP Statistical review
|
Capital Allocation
Business
Reinvestment
Debt
Management
Shareholder
Return
Growth
Capital
Q3 2008
$36M Maintenance CAPEX
$53M Environmental CAPEX
YTD 2008
$128M Maintenance CAPEX
$115M Environmental CAPEX
2009 Plan
$255M Maintenance CAPEX
$256M Environmental CAPEX
Q3 2008
$14M Debt Repayments
$45M CSF1 option settle
YTD 2008
$202 Debt Repayments
$45M CSF1 Option settle
2009 Plan
Term Loan B excess
cash flow offer
Q3 2008
$130M Share repurchases
3.4 million shares
2008 Program
$270M share repurchases
6.73 million shares
2009 Program
$300M share repurchases
Q3 2008
$123M - Wind, CBY 4,
STP 3&4
2009
$118M - Wind, CBY4, STP,
GenConn
YTD 2008
$373M - Wind, CBY 4,
STP 3&4, Cos Cob
9/30/08:
$3.0B Liquidity
NRG has the capital to create value for its shareholders
|
NRG: Well Positioned for the Future
Short-Term
(1-2 years)
Medium-Term
(3-5 years)
Significantly hedged 2009-2010 at robust margins
Leveraged into the upturn
Natural gas price recovery
Heat Rate recovery, particularly in Texas
Capacity prices trending to replacement cost
Positioned to withstand down turn; Poised to capitalize on upswing
|
NRG:
Always Looking to Create Value,
Not Empires
|
NRG is the Best Positioned Competitive Power
Generation Company
NRG Fleet1
Gas
10,490 MW
46%
Coal
7,525 MW
33%
Oil
3,690 MW
16%
Nuclear
1,175 MW
5%
Exelon's generation assets, among others, are undeniably a good fit
1 Includes 115 MW as part of NRG's Thermal assets. For combined scale, approximately 3,450 MW is dual-fuel
capable. Reflects only domestic generation capacity as of December 31, 2007.
MW data as of December 31, 2007
PJM Baseload
Low carbon baseload
More balanced market
diversification
Renewables / new energy
technologies
Asset Strategic Priorities (in order):
NRG is best, but we could be better still
|
NRG/Texas Genco
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2004
2005
2006
Exelon/PSEG Timeline
Trend 1: Power Industry Consolidation in the Post
Exelon/PSEG World
worse
same
better
never
Acquirer
Target
IOU
Deregulated
Genco
Regulated
T & D
- Non-regulated
Sub-investment grade
Growth
- Regulated
Investment grade
Yield
Disaggregation of hybrid
utilities to capture full
generation value
becomes more logical...
Deregulated Gencos
and Merchant
Generators are logical
combinations,
providing the requisite
scale, geographic and
fuel diversity
Next wave of power industry
consolidation no longer likely to
be initiated with a wave of
"mega-utility" mergers
Consolidation Regulatory
Compatibility Matrix
Regulated
IOU
Merchant
Generator
Regulated
IOU
Merchant
Generator
Merchant
Generator
Slide from David Crane Presentation -
Merrill Lynch Conference: September 2006
|
Exelon's offer is severely mispriced, highly conditional,
and poorly structured
NRG will continue on its current path of pursuing value
creation through:
Continued execution excellence
Prudent balance sheet management
Return of capital to shareholders
Intrinsic growth (FORNRG, econrg, NINA)
Extrinsic opportunities which create value
Summary
|
Transcript of
NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
NRG Board Response to Exelon Offer
Conference Call
November 10, 2008
Participants
David W. Crane, President and Chief Executive Officer
Robert C. Flexon, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Presentation
Operator
(audio difficulties) Have you join us at NRG conference call and webcast. The purpose of this
presentation is to discuss Exelons acquisition result as announced. Formal presentation will be
given by David Crane, President and CEO, Bob Flexon, Executive Vice President and COO. (audio
difficulties)
First, a few housekeeping items. First we ask you that you silence your cell phones, blackberries
(audio difficulties). Second, we will take questions at the end of the formal presentation from
audience members only. [Operator Instructions].
Finally,
the presentation is webcast live from our website at
www.nrgenergy.com. You can access
the presentation, some of which has been furnished with the SEC through a link on the investor
relations page on the website. A replay of this conference call will be posted on the website for
one year following this conference call.
Now, for the obligatory Safe Harbor statement. During the course of todays conference call on
November 10, 2008, management will provide forward-looking statements regarding future events. We
caution you to consider the disclosures and risk factors contained in the companys slide
presentation and in our filings with the SEC that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those forward-looking statements in this presentation and webcast. Also we would also note
that this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy
any securities or solicitation of any vote or approval.
Now with that, it is my pleasure to turn this over to David Crane, NRGs President and Chief
Executive Officer. David.
David Crane NRG President & CEO
Good morning everyone. Thank you for coming this morning. We know that everyone changed their
plans to come here this morning. We very much appreciate you taking the time. We have a terribly
lengthy slide deck today, which is in
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conjunction with the fairly lengthy letter that was sent yesterday. The good news is we will try
to run through it quickly and answer any questions you have.
As you can tell from the title of the presentation, our focus is on value. Certainly, as our board
upon receipt of the proposal from Exelon tried to decide how in the present economic environment
you focus on value and what creates value for NRG shareholders. We focused on four things. Those
are the fourth things I will ask you to focus on today. Knowing my love for alliteration, they all
begin with C. Cash, cost, conditionality, and the combined company.
I am convinced that when we go through this presentation there will be no doubt in your mind that
the NRG board of directors has made the right decision in rejecting the Exelon proposal. Even more
importantly, we also want to focus in addition to the Exelon proposal and we would like to talk
about what we believe NRG can do to work through the current difficulties that surround each and
everyone of us in the current economic environment. We feel we have done that well today, proven
by our third quarter earnings and Bob Flexon will talk about that. Also, the way in which we feel
that we can position the company as a springboard into the recovery that will happen afterwards.
And, of course, the goal is to make sure that the NRG shareholders are not diluted as they get into
that value creation. So, lets get started.
The first thing that I want to talk about is obviously what Exelon has proposed NRG is an all 100%
stock for stock deal and there have not been a lot of stock for stock deals done during the past
few years during the period of easy cash.
So we start with the history of the exchange ratio. Obviously what this slide shows is the
disconnect which has occurred over the past few months between market prices and true economic
value. On this basis which is not what we consider to be the fundamental basis representative of
fundamental economic value in the current environment. The offer made to us by Exelon, .485 Exelon
shares for NRG shares. This is a discount to the 24-month average exchange ratio between the
companies. It does not compensate NRG shareholders for the considerable implementation risks given
that this proposal lacks a credible debt-financing plan and has serious credit rating implications
which as yet have been unanswered. It does not reward NRG for the better performance or for our
more attractive growth prospects and does not include any control on premiums. And all of that is
important, but I think the most important thing and the thing that we are focused on most
extensively by the NRG board which evaluated this transaction by every conceivable financial metric
that we could come up with over the past three weeks, is that in these extremely uncertain times
that we live in, cash is king and cash has never been the king before.
And the simple fact is demonstrated by this slide four is that at the exchange ratio offered by
Exelon, NRG shareholders would own 17% of the combined companies even though our company produces
30% of the free cash flow for 2008 and 26% of the free cash flow based on projections for 2009.
Just to give you a sense of what type of exchange ratio this would turn into if there would be a
fair exchange on this basis as set forth in this page is 0.833 based on
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2008 or 0.67 based on 2009. Obviously a great deal higher than what we are talking about in terms
of .485.
Now beyond the ability of the two companies to generate cash there is the use of cash. It is a bit
counterintuitive because obviously Exelon is a much bigger company than NRG, but as we focus on it
and we have been focused on free cash flow yield, our management of our balance sheet and our debt
maturities and where we stand with the way we run our business is that we not only have substantial
free cash sufficient free cash flow on hand to run our business, but we also have excess free
cash flow as demonstrated on our third quarter call where we announced the beginning of our 2009
share buyback plan. Our plan to take advantage of the fact that our restrictive payment basket has
increased over $400 million. And to start with a $300 million share buyback plan for 2009. That
compares Exelon who announced a buyback of their stock on their second quarter call and then
cancelled it on their third quarter call in order to conserve cash.
As we look at their proposal to us, a lot of the analysis we did were the classic
accretion/dilution analysis, but while they may be focused in their presentations on
accretion/dilution on an earnings per share basis of course focused on how the transaction looks
for Exelon shareholders. We look at the transaction primarily on an accretion/dilution on a cash
basis as it applies to NRG shareholders. And you can see that the thing about fixed exchange ratio
transactions is that they have a tendency to become zero sum games. What is good for one group of
shareholders is bad for another.
I think that is highlighted on this slide in terms of showing how this substantial cash accretion
that Exelon shareholders would achieve on this deal translates into very severe cash dilution to
NRG shareholders. Im sorry this was the slide was referring to.
So how you keep this from being a zero sum game? And this is where you get into the synergy issue
or what we call in this case is the synergy problem. It is really quite a simple equation in a
fixed exchange ratio ideal. Essentially the old equation that for an acquisition to work for both
sides of shareholders the whole must be equal to must be greater than the sum of the parts. In
this case what that means is that positive synergies of the transaction have to exceed the cost of
the transaction or what we refer to as the negatives synergies. In this case, and I believe these
are using Exelons numbers they talked about $180 million to $300 million a year in positive
synergies. These synergies are made primarily of G&A cost savings on the NRG side, a bit of
duplication costs and maybe a little bit of procurement gain. And so that and again these are
using their numbers. So normally in an M&A transaction, the positive synergies exceed the cost of
the transaction, but what we have taken into account now is the extraordinary economic environment
that we live in. The fact that because NRG is a sub investment-grade company and over $7 billion
of NRG debt has a change of control clause attached to it, that in order to achieve these positive
synergies and make this transaction happen, you have to have you have to deal with the negative
synergies or the cost of financing. Again if you look at those costs as put forward here, I think
Exelon itself in its materials that it put out today has actually increased what they see as the
negative onetime cost of the transaction from
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$500 million to I think their number is $652 million transaction costs. There is a cost to achieve
which I believe is somewhere between that $100 million to $200 million in achieving that positive
synergies.
And then there is the very substantial cost of debt which at this point the issue is that nobody
knows, but we estimate that refinancing our $7 billion of debt that we need to refinance or even to
secure consent from our bond holders could result in costs in terms of extra interest costs that
range in the $200 million to $300 million per year. Our cost of debt is now approximately 7% and
refinancing debt in this market environment is at least a double-digit equation.
So when we do the equation in terms of this transaction, this is where we basically get the synergy
problem. Since there are limited positive synergies in the transaction as proposed by Exelon, if
you take out the large negative synergies, they are sort of trying to refinance low-cost debt at
this point of time and what the equation results in is equity value destruction.
We also wanted to talk a little bit about some of the points that are talked about in the letter in
terms of issues that we see with the combined companies prospects. Since it is a stock for stock
transaction since NRG shareholders would obviously be invested in the combined company. Part of
our boards evaluation, certainly a secondary evaluation to the evaluation of price, but
nonetheless an important one was what would the prospects be for the combined company. And the
first question, of course is the implementation risk and I already talked about the potential cost
of the debt financing. But also there is a question of is it even possible. The recent public
communications from Exelon indicated that possibly we could work together on consent from
bondholders. That is an area that has proven difficult for us in the past. We are aware that the
bondholders if they hold out for a change of control, our bonds currently trade at 88 or I believe
in that area that the bondholders would have the right to be bought out at 101. So to us, by no
means we are convinced that the debt refinancing approach that has been proposed or suggested by
Exelon is one that is viable.
The second issue and this is an issue that obviously has arisen since Exelon proposed their made
their proposal to us on October 19. What they have articulated several times in their public
discussion is their preoccupation with credit ratings. Obviously they have already been downgraded
by Standard and Poors as a result of their initiative toward us. This is an area where I think
there is the probably the starkest difference of opinion between ourselves and Exelon. Our
viewpoint based on five years of having run a competitive power generation company is that
depending on the rating agencies for a friendly weighting agency and then the prospect of future
upgrades is both futile and dangerous to equity shareholders. I make that point here. Look at our
own track record. This is sort of a profile of NRG from a credit perspective from the time we
emerged in bankruptcy in the fourth quarter of 2003. This is NRG five years later. You look at
the vast improvement in the companys credit metrics. I will not pick out everything on this slide
but liquidity up 1600%. EBITDA up over 300%. And let me show you how successful we have been in
terms of getting actual credit rating improvements out of the rating agencies. So essential in my
point is predicating any business plan in the competitive power
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generation plant industry on getting credit rating upgrades is one we dont think is destined for
success.
And then there is more importantly the dangerous part of this thing. And if anyone I would commend
people to read the Consolation and Energys Amendment Number One to their proxy statement which
they filed at the end of September. Deep in the back of that proxy statement they give a chilling
moment-by-moment account of the week of September 16th. What actually started on September 12th
when the management concluded that in order to avoid credit rating downgrade they need to raise
$500 million to $700 million of equity. Of course they reached that conclusion at the worst
possible time possibly in the history of economics to do that. And it became very difficult and
that led to the 72-hour period the following week which is depicted on this page where basically
they received an offer from mid American that they wanted to refuse that management wanted to
refuse, the Board of Directors wanted to refuse. The credit rating agencies kept putting a gun to
their head. And so in order to avoid the rating triggers that came with the downgrade below
investment grade, they had to agree to a transaction which from our point of view and probably from
their point of view probably destroyed equity value on a level that they had not ever anticipated.
So while it is counter intuitive to some people, we continue to believe very fervently and this is
the point we have been making for five years that the optimal credit rating position to be and if
you are a competitive power generator is BB. When you are sub investment grade, you dont have a
rating downgrade triggers of the type that come with being a low investment-grade.
Now we have talked about cash and I will keep emphasizing the point that cash is king. Some of the
commentators who have talked about this combination of Exelon and NRG noting that much greater size
of Exelon have indicated that NRG being part of Exelon will give us a more solid financial base. I
dont make any negative comment about Exelons liquidity. I am sure it is right for the business
they are doing. If you look at the most important metric within liquidity of cash, cash available
to NRG right now $1.5 billion and cash available to Exelon $156 million. What I mean to
demonstrate with this slide is that we have adequate cash indeed. We have excess cash and as I
mentioned before, that allows us to announce the share buyback that we announced just a couple of
weeks ago. So the idea that this proposal brings the necessary liquidity cushion to NRG is really
untrue and unfounded.
That is where we stand with cash now. Then there is the question and I would say this is an
uncertain question on our part. Weve looked at the investor presentations that Exelon has put out
and we listen to their CFO talk about how they will dedicate themselves if this combination goes
forward to restore their credit rating and what that implies in terms of how they use their cash.
But as we try and look at the various things that the cash as a combined company would go to, over
the once the companies were combined. We see the things listed here. We see lots of uses of
cash, but we dont see too many uses that actually benefit NRG shareholders. What we think
benefits our shareholders which we think we can do on our own is buyback and investing in the
companys future through growth CapEx.
The next slide essentially depicts that. Again trying to rebut the normal suggestion that because
Exelon is bigger that this will allow NRG shareholders to sort of realize
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more cash and from our perspective and our analysis we dont see this transaction as being net cash
generative to NRG shareholders. We dont see it resulting in more cash getting back into the hands
of NRG shareholders than what were capable of doing now.
Switching topics, there is the question of carbon. Another, that has been made by commentators is
that NRG obviously being a high carbon emitting coal-fire generator, wouldnt we like to be part of
a utility that has a bit of a green halo around them because they produce much less carbon with
more megawatts. While that is undoubtedly true, we would certainly like to be part of a greener
power company than we are now. We are working toward that. Towards that with our decarbonizing
initiatives in nuclear and elsewhere. We dont actually see how it works in this case. There is
no point in putting value on having a green halo if by joining the company that you are talking
about, the green halo will disappear. That is the point we have here. Exelon produces about
20 million tons of carbon right now. When you add NRG on top of Exelon, the pro forma company
would produce over 80 million tons of carbon per year. Exelon has a laudable goal I think under
the name Exelon 2020 of making themselves carbon neutral on the basis of their current carbon
footprint by the year 2020. When you look at the three aspects of how they will doing that;
assisting their customers, greening their own operations, building a couple of wind farms and a
couple combined cycle plants, you can at least arguably see how that adds up to 20 million tons.
They have not outlined, and we cannot figure out, how you take a company which emits a total of
80 million tons of carbon and turns them into a zero carbon company in 12 years time.
Finally before I turn it over to Bob, I want to talk a little bit about what we see as a very
different growth prospects for the companies. Both companies think that they have significant
growth in their future. We have analyzed the situation and while we are certainly comfortable with
the type of growth that we are talking about, Im personally not going to talk about it too much
unless people have questions because we just talked about recently in our third quarter call. We
have talked about it for years, what were doing with our FORNRG program, which has been highly
successful, our repowering NRG program which particularly features our nuclear development. And
we have with me today is Steve Wynn (ph) who runs that effort. And our econrg which is our
decarbonizing effort.
Exelon as we as a board evaluate Exelons own growth prospects what struck us was how
intertwined their growth prospects were with the political and regulatory environment as it
depended on the PECO and the ComEd roll off to full competition in 2011, 2013. And most notably
how much their growth depended on the enactment and the implementation of federal carbon
legislation.
We have it here a great deal of detail about how we evaluate these things particularly the risk of
carbon claw back which we feature here on slide 20. What I really want to do is just talk about
very big picture which is basically to say, what we believe and our preparing for what may be the
worst and most pronounced economic recession that any of us have experienced in our lifetime. We
think that the timing for Exelon in terms of the things that lay ahead for them is very unfortunate
in the sense that there is no doubt that Exelons nuclear fleet could be a huge beneficiary of
federal carbon
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legislation, for example. By some estimates, and we dont dispute this, their nuclear plants could
achieve a $7 billion NPV gain. But at the same time the other estimates that are important is that
the cost of federal carbon legislation to the PECO and the ComEd customers could be $5 billion. It
is difficult for us to imagine in the current political environmental economic environment that the
public policy makers are going to allow a bunch of nuclear power plants that were built well before
carbon was an issue, to walk away with $7 billion while imposing a $5 billion cost on the rate
paying voters who are the customers of that same company. So to us it is hard to quantify, but the
carbon claw back risk was one that concerned us.
On top of that that is on top of of course the potential rate shock risk that PECO and ComEd
customers will have. Obviously the PECO situation comes off at the end of 2010. Based on current
prices in eastern PJ under the $60 price that the customers are currently paying for their
wholesale price would become $77 which could result in an 18% increase in the cost to PECO
customers. Again I think it is difficult to sustain these things under the best of times, but
under the economic times we are going into, we think that will be a very challenging objective.
From our perspective we see Exelons financial growth at risk and largely beyond their control.
Another point we wanted to mention and I have had a lot of experience in this and this gets to some
of the softer things which are much more apparent to us and possibly you and the investment
community. But, the simple fact of the matter is that they are absolutely huge differences between
the way a utility holding company is run and the way a competitive power generation company is run.
There are cultural differences, structural differences. There are differences in terms of the
type of managerial experience that you are looking for. One of the things that we found lacking in
the information that Exelon has put out there is any indication of how the combined company would
be run. Running a 48,000 megawatts company in the five key regions that the combined company would
have is not for the faint of heart under any circumstances. But in this financial environment, how
you hedge those how you hedge the positions of that enormous fleet, how you collateralize the
hedge positions are all significant issues that we think need to be carefully looked at.
The other thing I would say about this is if you think I am just talking my own book as they
sometimes say, I would just invite you to look at the track record and the history of utilities
trying to manage competitive power generation companies is not good. When I made that point to
some investors yesterday they indicated to me, well, what is the history of independent power
companies? Didnt you go through a bad experience in your own industry several years ago? Of
course that is true. I can tell you from personal experience having come into NRG at the end of
2003, NRG as it was originally constituted was a northern states power contractor. The history of
the industry of the IPP industry leading into (inaudible) was that it was being run by utility
people. You look at the people on the podium here, you wont see a single person from a utility
company in the management team. You look at Jack Fuscos (ph) team at Calpine, you wont see a
single utility manager. I am not trying to disparage utility managers because they have skills
sets that are very important in the context of a rate-based utility. Im just saying that running
a competitive power generation company is a very different experience. And thats just on the
management front. The way you structure utilities are overwhelming siloed, overlapping levels.
Theyre
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set up to be secure, not lean, nimble entrepreneurial companies which is what we think is the
future of independent power companies. I will come back to that point. This is a qualitative
point. But it is a serious point that we would think that this company, if Exelon is to go
forward, we would like to have more clarity as to how they actually expect to structure the
company, how they expect to run the company.
So that is it in terms of running the day-to-day operation of the company. Then theres also the
question of the history of utilities in terms of actually developing power projects. That history
is not particularly strong either as well. The point I would like to make here and this is
directly relative to Exelon and us is that many of the commentators who have commented on this
proposal combination have said that they actually see positive combination in terms of Exelon
taking over NRG nuclear development program. What we try and highlight over the next three pages
and we will leave them for you to read. I will not go through it in detail. Steve Wynn (ph),
like I said is here and can talk to you about it. But suffice it to say that NRG has almost a
diametrically opposite approach to nuclear development from Exelon. Our approach is based on
spreading the risk, maximizing the value and most of all, given the size of nuclear development,
protecting the NRG balance sheet. This is a very, very different approach from the approach they
have gone down.
I leave you with the conclusionary statement that I totally reject the notion that our own industry
leading nuclear development program would be actually improved by being in the hands of Exelon. I
actually think it would be imperiled.
On that note, I will turn it over to Bob Flexon to talk about where we go from here.
Bob Flexon NRG EVP and COO
Good morning and thank you David. I will be beginning on slide 27.
On slide 27, we highlighted what our third quarter looked like. The point of this slide is not so
much as to take a look at what happened the last three months where we reported record operating
profits, record financial results, and record liquidity. The point of this slide is to talk about
what we have done for the previous 54 months prior to that quarter. Since NRG emerged in
December 2003, we have understood that this business is one that is driven by free cash flow. We
focused our efforts on free cash flow. What we have done over those 54 months prior to this
quarter is we focused on having an accident free environment, safe reliable operations and also as
David showed on one of his slides, we have a program called FORNRG which is our internal
improvement program and doing what we can to get costs out of the system, bring efficiency into
this system and gain a level of reliability from our plants. That all culminated in the third
quarter by really just hitting for this cycle, if I can use a baseball term, where we got the
safety and were at our best performance ever on safety and were at our best performance from a
plant standpoint. We certainly are doing particularly well in our cost improvement program where
we achieved the $250 million goal. And finally, the record financial performance brings it all
together as being a home run for us during the course of the year. That is the point of this slide
as to what we have been able to do since we emerged.
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One key element in our strategy is how we manage the business is our hedging program and how we
manage commodity prices risk. On page 28 we have highlighted our hedging program there. There are
four key takeaways when you think about our hedging program at NRG. First of all, its a rolling 5
to 6 years out. When you look at the hedging profile, the prompt year and the prompt second year
are typically nearing fully hedged status. If you take a look at the fuel and the energy, we keep
it closely matched. Thats the second point. We have the five-year rollout, we have the
matchbook, and then the third point being that the hedging occurs during periods of volatilities.
If you take a look at what we had in hedges last year versus this year, we have been far more
active this year as we saw in the first month six months of this year were very high commodity
prices, high volatility and we locked in about 54 terawatts hours of power hedges during the course
of 2008. Thats how we see the hedging program continuing in the future, is to pivot off that
volatility.
The fourth point and probably the most important point for any actively managed portfolio is how to
have an efficient collateral vehicle to do that. On the right-hand side of the slide it shows our
Lien program and the capacity of our Lien program. But our Lien program provides a cashless means
for us to make these hedges or have these hedges going out for five years. And to the extent that
commodity prices go up after we do the hedges, that the counter party takes the first lien
position. So we dont run the risk of a rating downgrade, suddenly have to post additional cash
collateral and the like. Its a very efficient vehicle that allows us to do this hedging program.
A little bit later on, I will talk about the benefits of being hedged over the next 24 months as we
get into some recessionary pressures in this business.
When we take a look at our portfolio and where were going in terms of our profitability, we will
be if largely levered to Texas as we have been in the past. In Texas it is a story of two things.
One is heat rates and then the second is gas. When we first talked about the heat rate side of it,
Texas is the marketplace that when youre in a recession is the least affected in the country. If
you take a look going back to 1999, Texas has outperformed the national average in things like GDP,
employment, and in load (ph) growth. If you take a look at the past history there and as we look
forward Texas is likely to be less impacted by recession and more likely to come out of the
recovery faster. If you look on the supply side, the issue on the supply side is how much gets
built. If youve got 27 gigawatts over the next few years that are forecasted to be built in
Ercot, but given the current market environment for commodities, for financing, for hedging, the
likelihood of that being built is rather low at this period of time. If you take away that 27
gigawatts of proposed build, you see a reserve margin as you go into 2011 and 2012 becoming very
tight, call it in the midteens areas. As you go through a recessionary period, if you think back
to our hedging slide a moment ago, over the next 24 months we are largely protected with our hedges
of power and energy. As you go out on our hedging program three or four or five years down the
road, as our portfolio starts opening up, thats the same point in time that you would expect,
based on past history for recessionary pressures to wane. Without new build, you would expect the
heat rate to tighten up very quickly in that type of environment. So we remain a bullish our
view remains very bullish on the Texas marketplace.
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On the gas side of it, and the case here again is what is happening in the commodity markets and
the financing markets. You see on the supply side we have plotted out on page 30 on the bottom
left hand side gas recount at various natural gas prices over the past 14 years or so. If you took
a look at where gas prices are today, it implies roughly a 4 Bcf decline in gas production. If we
take a look at the financial markets and some of the announcements recently coming out around
capital expenditure, you can see the CapEx had been cut roughly $6 billion over the next year due
to the financing pressures and the commodity price pressures. The supply side we see cutting back.
Its a very different story on the demand side when you look at what is happening globally with
natural gas becoming the fuel of choice. We expect continued demand for natural gas in the
marketplace globally. LNG continues to sell at a premium to the U.S. markets so we are seeing very
little LNG imports into this country. When you look at the unconventional supply in the U.S., the
break-even cost including the return from published reports we looked at, is upwards of $8.50 per
million Bcf. Our fundamental view on natural gas is bullish long-term and in the near-term, again
with this commodity price pressure and recessionary pressure, that again is the period in time in
which we have a hedged profile.
What this all means is going back to day one when we originally started out back in the summer 2003
in recognizing it is not all about one thing, its about being able to take the free cash flow and
using it for all parts of your business. First and foremost we reinvest in the business. Well
continue to do that. Our maintenance CapEx, our environmental CapEx. We manage our debt levels.
We have our targeted capital structure that we operate within. We have the development program
where we are bringing new assets online and will continue to allocate cash for that. And finally,
a key component of how we manage our cash is to provide a regular return to shareholders which we
have been doing over the course of the past several years and we will continue in the future.
So to wrap this up, in the short term while we see a lot of pressures economically, our hedge
profile provides the free cash flow that weve been accustomed to seeing. Our free cash flow rates
of over 20%, where they are today will continue on into 2009 and beyond. And in the medium term
going out 3 to 5 years as the recession falls back and Texas recovers and the overall market
recovers, gas demand continues to climb. We remain very bullish on what that outlook means for us
and the long-term value of NRG.
I will turn it back to David.
David Crane NRG President & CEO
Thank you Bob. Now I will just wrap up by talking about a couple of things about the future a
couple of big picture things. I think one thing that we have always been a proponent of in this
industry is consolidation. The initiative of Exelon toward us, if its a harbinger of anything to
come as a harbinger that maybe that consolidation is upon us. Another wave of consolidation and
that can be a good thing. I think it is important as we think about consolidation in this
industry, that one does not want to pursue scale just for scale sake. We dont want to get back
into the period we had a decade ago where people were pursuing bragawatts not megawatts. What we
talk about in our company when we talk about consolidation is scale with a purpose. Over the last
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four and a half years we have done deals like Texas Jenco (ph), buying the other half of West
Coast Power which we think undeniably and incontrovertibly made us both bigger but also better.
Created value for our shareholders. We also avoided deals, avoided more deals than people in the
room know which we think would not have had the same affect. So for us, we think we have the track
record, we are not opposed to doing transactions. I know the letter we sent to Exelon was very
lengthy, but I particularly invite peoples attention to the last paragraph of the letter where we
say we are a willing seller and willing buyer at the right price.
Specifically what I want to talk about in conclusion is if we look at the situation and we have
said this in the past, we feel that we are in the best positioned power generation company in the
country. We think the statements that Exelon has made about how they scour the country, look far
and wide and look up and down and this is the one investment in the country that makes sense for
them, I think legitimates that. But we have also said in our investment presentations that there
is no denying that as good a position energy is, we could be better. We could have, as I like to
say, greater scale with more purpose. We have never denied and we put on this side what we think
would make the NRG portfolio better. PJM baseload, low carbon baseload, more balanced market
diversification, more green technologies. There is no denying and nowhere in the six pages of our
response to Exelon do we deny that the fit between NRG and Exelon Generation is a good fit because
it is. Our focus is on the price and by the price I mean the exchange ratio and essentially a
category of other things which basically adds up to the fact that the structure that they proposed
is wrong for a competitive power generation company.
As my colleagues know, that if they come to me not liking that the course of action that NRG is on
is the right one, that they just cant say its a bad course, they have to come up with something
better. In that spirit, I wanted to at least suggest to you a constructive alternative. I noted
that in the Exelon Investor Presentation they took one of our slides from a previous presentation
we made talking about the five imperatives to being an ideal competitive power generation company.
And I think that if they were going to troll through old NRG presentations, they should have gone
back a little further to the Merrill Lynch presentation that we made in September 2006. That was
the and Im glad to see that Elizabeth is here because a long time expert in the industry and
Im sure she remembers that conference very well. That was the one where Elizabeth paired myself
and Joel Staff (ph) and John Wilder (ph). Most of that discussion that day of course was us
articulating our position on carbon and John Wilder articulating his position on why he thought
building 11 coal plants in Ercot was the thing to do.
Also what we talked about on that day and what we presented was this slide. In the immediate wake
of the demise of the Exelon PSEG merger we talked about future of consolidation as we saw it. You
will note particularly looking along the bottom, that we thought there really two types of
combinations that made sense. Regulated utilities and merchant generators and merchant generators
and merchant generators. And you see how we played it out across the bottom right of the slide.
There is one very, very important aspect of what we proposed on that day which is missing from the
current Exelon proposal. That is that in order to make this really work, you have to disaggregate
the utility, you have to split the deregulated generation from the
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regulated T&D business. If you think of the risks and concerns that we raise in our letter about
this proposal as structured by Exelon, the number of things that would be solved or at least
mitigated by working out a combination that splits the companies. It would reduce the ongoing
regulatory risk, it would reduce the potential for carbon claw back. It would separate the highly
cash generation business from the cash absorbing T&D business. It would handle the credit rating
issue and the T&D business the regulated T&D business to get the BBB rating with complete
with the rating triggers that they see while the generation business could be solid BB as we
advocate. And you might also if you look at this such a transaction this way, you might also be
able to solve the equation as the whole equaling more being greater than the sum of the parts.
And if you look at the overhead cost structure or a utility versus the overhead costs structure of
a company like NRG, there are probably two or three more times more cost that can be taken out on
the other side then taking out the cost of the IPP.
So, if we want to talk about a transaction with Exelon I think we really need to talk about two
things. One is an exchange ratio that makes sense and the other is a structure that makes us.
Thats something like what were talking about here.
Finally, in summary and before we answer your questions, I think we have made it clear why we feel
that the Exelon offer was not accepted by the NRG board. We see immense opportunity for NRG in the
years to come as NRG responses to what we see as the great dynamics in our industry going forward;
the focus on sustainability and climate change, the need to rebuild the nations energy structure.
We think were very well positioned to capitalize on those trends right now. But in order to
capitalize on those trends, it would certainly be useful to be bigger, but its more important to
be lean and nimble and entrepreneurial. In that situation the structure is critical. So actually
going back to the Merrill Lynch conference in 2008, my focus then was that the key to being a
success competitive power generation company in the future is to take our queues and be more like
the Silicon Valley venture capitalists. That is looking forward approach not the looking backward
approach of being more like a traditional utility.
So at the end of the day what I would say to you the equity holders of NRG is that we remain
committed as a management team and we are empowered power right now to focus every day on working
for you. That is what we want to continue to do. Not put ourselves in a position where the
company is basically working for the benefit of the credit rating agencies.
So with that we would be happy to take any questions that anyone has. I think we have 10 or 15
minutes before people have to get back to the conference. Do we have microphones?
Jeff Rosenbaum from DE Shaw (ph)
So as part of the transaction sorry Jeff Rosenbaum from DE Shaw (ph). As part of the Exelon
transaction they talked about the path they took and the timing being accelerated, but they are
worried about or concerned about other potential transactions that NRG might take which they might
consider poison pill to doing a transaction to NRG. Can you comment on what the status of other
strategic
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alternatives are at the current time and if youre putting them on hold to figure where (inaudible)
forward?
David Crane NRG President & CEO
One of the comments I made during the presentation was we think in the present environment there is
a lot of talk between a lot of people about transactions, about consolidations. One of the points
I made is that the week that Exelon approached me about having the meeting that resulted in the
September 30th discussion, John Rowe was not even the first utility executive to call me that week.
There is a lot of discussion going on between a lot of people both on the selling and buying side.
We are participating in those. We think we have a duty to our shareholders to look and see where
value can be created. In our view, and we have held this view through out even when we were
looking at Calpine, it was not our intention that Calpine thing be in the public. Any combination
in this sector I think is a very, very complicated thing and it needs to be done in a cooperative
way and quite frankly it needs to be negotiated in a private way. So I cant comment on any
specific thing. To the extent that Exelon thought that they were preempting something that was
eminent, they were completely wrong. So, but we have in the past we have a group of people that
look at this stuff every day. They will continue to look at this stuff every day. I cant really
predict when anything happens. All I can predict is that we will make sure from our perspective
and shareholders perspective it only happens if it is value creative to our shareholders.
Are there any other questions? I know it is early in the morning and you getting yourself primed
for an exciting conference over at EII (ph). We really appreciate you coming over this morning.
Thank you very much and if you have any specific questions for any of our team, they would be happy
to answer those questions. Thank you very much.
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